Trump’s Win: Trade, Tariffs, and Australia’s Next Moves

With Donald Trump poised to return as U.S. president, former Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Joe Hockey has outlined some challenges Australia could face as the new administration begins shaping its policies.
Hockey pointed to issues such as tariffs, China relations, and America’s economic priorities, stressing that Australia must prepare to navigate potential disruptions.
“He will challenge us on tariffs, stepping up on international relations, confronting China, and much more,” Hockey said.
During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of up to 20 percent on most imports to the U.S. and significantly higher rates of 60 to 100 percent on goods from China.
Australia’s trade with the U.S. is governed by the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA), which has provided substantial tariff relief since it was enacted in 2005. Currently, 96.1 percent of Australian exports to the U.S. are tariff-free.
However, when Trump took office in 2017, he introduced sweeping tariffs on global imports but granted Australia an exemption after significant diplomatic efforts.
“We were the only country exempted from both tariff increases and quotas,” he noted.
However, he said that there were many in the Trump administration keen to impose tariffs on Australia even then.
She pointed out that while the U.S. represents a smaller portion of Australia’s overall exports, it accounts for over 10 percent of South Australian exports, notably in beef, wine, and lead.
“Any tariffs could seriously impact South Australian businesses,” Stone said.
“He ran a campaign based on policy, because there’s no enormous love of Donald Trump on the ground in the United States, but there is great affection and hope in his policies,” he said.
In addition to the economy, immigration remains a key issue.
“It’s tough to be the incumbent,” he said, noting that voters ousted both Trump and Biden after single terms when voter concerns were not addressed.
“And they’ll do it again unless Trump delivers this time around.”
He further highlighted the need to prioritise policies around voters’ financial security and personal safety.
Hockey commented, “Trump does forgive, but he doesn’t forget.”
He added that successful diplomacy under Trump hinges on personal rapport rather than ideological alignment.
“Trump doesn’t automatically oppose those on the left or right. He’s more interested in personalities,” he said.
He also highlighted Rudd’s efforts to engage key figures within the Trump administration.
“I know Kevin Rudd has been working overtime on a number of senior Trump Republicans, and hopefully for the sake of Australia, those relationships develop into a closer working relationship with a Trump administration.”